Libya and the Arab summer of discontent

Na`Ive`te´ - n. 1. The state or quality of being naive.

[Article 1: Libya will be ruled by Sharia Law.....]

Unfounded optimism and naiveté. The expostulation so current and pervasive in the media and elsewhere that in Libya, Egypt and the Arab world we would see 1300 years of Islamo-Arab culture suddenly mutate into a multi-cultural paradise of Western based Constitutional law, tolerance, and regard for modern processes and the usual list of tiresome bromides, was to the say the least, fantastically irrational and naive. It is indeed absurd. Culture is king and it always will be. Islamic jurisprudence, Islamo-political theology, Arab culture and Oriental attitudes constitute the states in the North Africa-Levantine axis. That will never change. The permanency of the Muhammadan cult and its grip on all political-social factors in this region of the world is simply an immutable fact. Only through invasion and occupation – along the lines of the Iraq model – can one hope to change this, but even here it can be noted that Iraq enshrines Islamic jurisprudence and aspects of Sharia Law. The same Sharia Law that the Libyan rebels are proposing.

No one in the media has any idea who the Libyan rebels are. The media assumes that they are young eager democrats, pre-Robespierre-ian dogmatics, enthused by love, Rousseauian philosophy, free-markets, tolerance for Jews and Christians, and a modern itch to get on with the good things of life including iPad's BMW's, and comely women dressed en decollete´. The 'great man' Obamed said 5 months ago that the Libyan operation to oust Gadafi would be a 'matter of days not weeks'. 5 months on, Gadafi is sill at large and urban warfare a likely prospect. Even if he is found and killed the result is a large 'so what'. Months more of chaos and bloodshed look certain. It is a noble ideal to kill Gadafi and replace his dictatorship. No one demurs. But right now he is far from dead and a current and future dictatorship, or rule by an empowered coterie of ex-Gadafi hit-men, in the guise of a Robespierre and his 'council of citizens', is very likely.

The Arab Spring in Egypt is now a frosty winter. The US is threatening to withhold $2 billion in aid from Egypt if and when, it tears up its peace treaty with the hated Jew-state Israel. Nassar reawoke Egyptian Arab and Moslem 'pride' and established Egyptian neo-nationalism premised in large part on the racism of hating Jews, and the supremacy of Moslem poli-cracy and totalitarian culture. We should expect Egypt to look a lot more like Nasserism, than a democratic polity wonderfully attuned to nature, the children's future and open to debate, tolerance, reason and trade. Nothing in Egypt's history makes any move towards Western Constitutionalism remotely possible or even passably reasonable to expect.

The same is true of Libya. It has oil and $85 million a day in oil revenues. It has a Western built infrastructure and trade ties to Italy and England. There is more of a chance of a fundamentalist Moslem regime being installed perhaps over a period of years; than a bi-cameral Parliamentary democracy and pluralist tolerance for people from all faiths and points of view. To assume that Libya will become Holland is grossly absurd.

The Heritage foundation reports that the rebel Constitution is decidedly pro-Sharia. It can be found here. There are nostrums about democracy, free-speech, voting, and political parties. But it clearly states that Islam is the 'religion of the state' and that Islamic jurisprudence or Sharia will rule the country. Neither Islam, nor Koranic based law is tolerant, open, and even rational. Libya will simply mutate back into a Syria, a Saudi Arabia, a Somalia, an Egypt, or any of the other numerous failed Moslem states.

The irrational hope that Libya will be Holland is matched by the general zeitgeist that a 7^th century Arab pagan totalitarianism is an emblem of civilization and created the modern world. Islam's failure in every sense of that word, means for the bien pensant, that it is peace, and that Islam and Moslems created the modern world. It is a fantasy world of contra-reality non-thinking. So too is the expectation that Libya will become the utopian welfare-state of California, resplendent in multi-cultural piety, Mother Earth love, and welfare state bankruptcy. Libya has more of a chance to become an oil-rich Somalia with warlords fighting over the spoils of carbon energy, than arguing patiently and with zealous 'tolerance' in a parliamentary debating chamber. This fact begs the question – what is NATO doing there and what are the aims of the mission? No war for oil?