November 2004

The US and the Iraqi government will crush the terrorist insurgency in 2005. There are good reasons to expect this:

1. The latest intelligence puts the number of active Iraqi guerrillas at 5,000-10.000 and sympathizers at around 50,000. The insurgents have plenty of firepower, including assault rifles, explosive devices, rocket-propelled grenades and a number of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles. And their funding appears sufficient to pay young men as much as $5,000 to risk an attack against American forces.

But an insurgency requires several other elements to succeed: popular support, money, weapons and a safe haven to hide, train and plan. The Baathist insurgency has adequate arms but little else. Only the most 'useful of idiots' in the West believe that the Iraqi's want fascism and Islamo-theocratic governance. With an Iraqi army leading the way under an elected government [Jan. 05], the beginning of the end of the terrorist insurgency is nigh. Taking Fallujah immediately is an important first step.

2. The Pentagon says most of the insurgents are former Baath Party officials and other Saddam loyalists and nearly all are part of Iraq’s Sunni Arab minority. The Sunnis have little influence outside the Baathist/Sunni triangle which extends just north and west of Baghdad. Little terror activity occurs outside this area, and American generals say their best intelligence on the insurgency comes from other Iraqis fed up with the terrorist resistance.

3. The Baathists lack a credible ideology to inspire new recruits. Returning Saddam to power generates little enthusiasm anywhere in Iraq, and, according to a recent study by Baghdad University, 71.5 percent of Iraqis favor the occupation, at least on a temporary basis and the January 05 elections will provide Iraq with a broad based representative government with legitimacy in the eyes of its populace. This will make it even harder for terrorist elements to operate and elicit needed public support.

4. Arms caches are being uncovered weekly and eventually weapons supplies will run out. Though the Liberal media mistakenly stated that 400 tons of ammunition went missing in October 2004, according to the Iraqi government the Coalition has found 400.000 tons of ammunition and destroyed about 250.000 to date. Eventually the ammunition supply for the terrorists will run out.

5. The borders will also become less porous. Money and some men are coming in from Syria and Iran. Once the US has trained enough Iraqi militia the borders will become harder to infiltrate. Once the supply of money is cut off the terrorist insurgency will not last long.

Christopher Spear, assistant secretary for policy at the Department of Labor, said a majority of Iraqis report they are better off now than they were under the regime of Saddam Hussein, and their cooperation with the American-led coalition proves this. "When you get out and work with these people - the smiles that you see, the embraces - it just really is encouraging. You're actually contributing and making a difference, but it really rests on their shoulders."

Though the work will be long and hard there is little reason to be pessimistic. As long as the needed monies are reinvested in Iraq’s infrastructure and civilian reconstruction, and as long as the new Iraqi government is legitimate the quelling of the terrorist insurgency will be effected in 2005. Militarily the US and Iraqi army will take care of and liquidate the remaining elements of terrorist activity. We just need to hold firm and not be afraid to finish the job.