Thursday, June 7, 2007
Still believe that the war is unnecessary?
The entire Middle East is at risk.
by Ferdinand III
This is preposterous. In reality the entire Middle East stretching from Lebanon to the Pakistani border is up for grabs in a war that will determine the future direction of the world in the next two generations.
Iraq and Afghanistan are bridgeheads in a long, brutal and vicious war for control of the world’s most volatile region. The conflict will not end soon. Oil is an important factor in as much as keeping the Straits of Hormuz open, benefits Europe as much as North America, China or Japan. But of course the issue goes much deeper and oil is not the reason we are there [it would have been a lot cheaper to keep the status quo pre 2003 and import from ‘stable’ regimes such as Hussein’s].
The main effect of invading Iraq in 2003 and Afghanistan in 2001 has not been the increase in jihad enrollment. It has been the uncovering of the real impetus behind fascist Islam – the doctrines, the violence and the ambition to create a caliphate from the Mediterranean to Pakistan. The 1400 year Arabic-Islamic jihad has been attacking the modern world since 1969. Given that most populations in the West are against the war, it a signal failure of Western leadership to properly espouse, reiterate and debate why we are ‘over there’. We are there to ensure our future survival.
Marxists, socialists and other opinion holders on various affairs like simplicity. They like Manichean pictures. US is bad, Islam is peaceful. Israel is fascist, Palestinians are victims. Arabs are moderates, the American military is akin to Nazi storm-troopers. Iraq is a mess, Iran is no threat. Pakistan is run by a dictator, Afghanistan is in chaos. Why are we there? etc. etc. Such emotional simplicity misses the greater point. The entire region stretching from Lebanon to the Pakistani border is in a war. The wars vary by state, by region and in the makeup of the combatants. But the base fact is that the Middle East is at its most critical period since the 1967 Israeli-won 6 day war.
The difficulty is that these various wars are connected, intertwined but still very hard to discern or explain.
Lebanon for instance was rendered by a 15-20 year civil war and went from being a Christian managed plural state, to a Muslim-Arab terrorist haven. Lebanon is a dual state. There is a democratically elected pro-Western government increasingly in conflict with a terrorist state which manages key social-political processes within the normative state.
Fatah al Islam a radical Islamic group that seeks to overthrow the Lebanese government is fomenting a refugee camp based civil war, designed to enflame and engulf the entire Lebanese state and force the government into abdication. The Lebanese civil war, has taken a bizarre turn where Muslim and Arab now fight each other for control.
The secular Lebanese government will only survive if Western and US support is given. They are as terrified of the Syrian-Iranian sponsored Hezbollah, as the Jews and Americans. If the Lebanese government falls, then Hezbollah a proxy of Iran, will turn that country into an Iranian-Syrian managed satellite – and the major centre for renewed attacks on Israel. If it falls then the appropriate response must be a US-Israeli invasion to take over the entire territory of the Lebanese state and wipe out all Jihadic elements which are based there.
Syria is likewise embroiled in a war with Islamic extremists. Whatever the odious nature of the Hashemite Assad family dynasty, it is increasingly clear that Al Qaeda and other Jihadic groups feel that Syria is not radical enough. Syria is no friend of the West, but that might change. Fomenting civil war in Iraq has not bought the friendship of immoderate Muslim elements in the Middle East. Sponsoring attacks on Israel through its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon has not appeased the extremist cliques that seek to rule the entire Middle East. Syria has been targeted for regime change.
In a recent statement by the deputy leader of Al Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, he urged the facist Jihadis in Iraq to extend their ‘holy war’ to other Middle Eastern countries – in particular Syria and Lebanon. ‘…Al Qaeda … cells are said to be recruiting in Palestinian camps near Damascus, the capital. Al Qaeda Web sites are demanding the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad [of Syria].’ Arab and Muslim governments have as much to fear from the fascist elements of Islam as they do from American led regime change. This might portend an end to Syrian funded atrocity in Iraq, in return for Western-American aid in defeating the radical jihadist movement at home.
Iraq is in turmoil thanks to Syrian, Al Qaeda and Iranian meddling, in addition to domestic civil strife and ethno-religious divisions. This is not to say that Iraq can never be a functioning, stable state. Of course it can and most likely will be, if the US does not pull out. Iraq is of course the best example of the complicated nature of the fight for the Middle East. Politics, economics, military strength and culture are all at play. There is no facile plan to arrest the violence in Iraq and resolve the myriad differences which promote conflict. One thing however is certain, leaving Iraq will make it a lot worse, a lot faster.
When viewed in the abstract the various conflicts stretching across the Middle East, while chaotic, are unified. We are now in the phase of fighting for political-military and economic control of an important region. Sure we can draw down troops; make sure we put sensitive public works projects ahead of winning battles; defer to Euro-sensibility in making sure that no Euro-troops have to fight; tell Israel to give up more land for peace [or in reality give up land in exchange for more Arab rocket attacks]; project our plans endlessly on CNN; set timelines for withdrawal and defeat; and make up stories about how we have murdered 600.000 or 1 million or 6 million innocents etc. etc. While dumb these are options and attitudes that many hold dear.
The various wars in the Middle East are part of the struggle of an immature, pre-modern system against an advanced civilization. These struggles occur regularly throughout history. It is only with the compression of time and technology that the world seems centered on our every action and thought. It is the blind narcissism and self-righteousness of modern communications.
But in the long view of historical development the wars raging across the Islamic world are not only necessary but inevitable. Two thousand years from now historians will puzzle over why a wealthy, educated and proud civilization could not recognize the long term necessity of deploying enough resources and energy to pacify an important geo-political region of the world including the ending of threats to Israel’s existence. The wars in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan are part of a broader and far more complicated struggle than the media and politicians will discuss.
It is in our national and civilizational self-interests to recognize that we need to win ‘over there’ and create the conditions which allow civilization to take root. If we fail now then at some point in the near future we will find ourselves going back, with a far higher and bloodier price to pay in human lives and in treasure. Never put off until tomorrow, what you should do today. That would be a good message for the media to put out.