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Wednesday, October 26, 2011

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Moslem infertility. The birth rate is falling.

Maybe Demography is not Destiny. Or maybe it is.

by Ferdinand III


In 2004 Phillip Longman wrote a Foreign Affairs article which outlined why the Malthusian-Paul Ehrlich fantasy of overpopulation on Mother Earth was a myth. The human population will peak in about 20 years and then go into an almost irreversible aggregate decline. By 2150 there will be fewer hominids playing with their version 19 iPhones, then in existence today. For the Eco-cult and other sundry human-haters this is good news. The fertility replacement rate per female is 2.1. World fertility patterns are clearly trending to below 2.0. This fact of course does bring up obvious political-social and military questions, as well as musings over inter-nation tensions and rivalries. Will the desperate and disappearing states channel their existential crisis into conflict?

Longman does not visit the future decline in population issue by country. But if he did, and if he revisited his numbers now, he would find rather curiously that the fertility rates in the Moslem world have fallen off the proverbial cliff. Most people would be astonished by this. The drop in Moslem babies is of course great news. Islam, which is presented by the Western media as pacific, tolerant, sophisticated and socially cohesive is of course the opposite in reality. Vitally as the Moslem world urbanizes, its birth rate has fallen by over ½ in the aggregate. Islamic politicians in Turkey and Iran for example have set 2040 as the 'end date' of their so-called 'civilisations'. Within 30 years the decline in both Turkic and Persian-Mede fertility will herald an irreversible decline in both populations. The same is true elsewhere in the Moslem world.

The UN’s World Population Prospects Report makes it clear the fertility decline in the Moslem world is indeed a world-wide phenomenon. The report compares birth rates from about 1970 to 2003-7. The analysis reveals that the largest Moslem states are becoming infertile and are approaching European and Japanese infertility rates. For example in Indonesia which has the world’s largest Muslim population [230 million], the fertility rate has dropped from 5.6 in 1970, to 2.02 today, which is below the replacement level. The same UN assessment sees huge declines in Bangladesh (from 6.5 to 2.2) and Malaysia (4.7 to 2.4) during this same period. By 2050, even Pakistan is expected to reach a replacement-level fertility rate down from 7.1 in 1970, and 3.8 in 2005.

One of the main state actors supporting Moslem terror is of course Iran. Iran is experiencing what might be the most dramatic demographic downshift in history. The economic, social and political implications of this sea-change in median age and infertility is and will be shocking and important. Iran is a country of some 70 million. Thirty years ago when the Islamic revolution took over the country, the fertility rate was 6.5. By 2000 it had dropped to 2.2. Today the Iranian fertility rate is 1.7, or at European levels. By 2040 the demographic decline in this Moslem state will be irreversible and will lead to a great contraction in population, youth, economic potential and military power. [The excel table for the above can be found here.]

In Europe the march of the Moslem cult might well be halted due to lowered birth rates mirroring the more general and global Moslem antipathy to having babies. The Europeans do not officially collect birth and death rates by ethnicity or by 'religious' groups but whatever is available points to a slow-down – a dramatic slow-down in fact – of Moslem birthing. In Holland between 1990 and 2005 the fertility rate for Moroccan Moslem-born women fell from 4.9 to 2.9, and for Turkish-born women from 3.2 to 1.9. In Germany, Moslem females had in 1970 2 more children on average than German women. By 2000 the difference was 1 child. By 2010 it was estimated to be 0.5. Most likely the numbers from other EU states would show a similar and rather precipitous decline in Moslem fertility.

Why the decline? Many authors and investigators offer a myriad of explanations. 50% of the Moslem world lives in an urban center. Typically the more urban a culture, the fewer babies which are produced. This was true of ancient Sparta, Athens and Rome, as it is today of liberal polities such as London, New York, or Beirut. Shifts in culture, theology, a rejection of much of the paganism inherent in Islam by those Moslems who are educated, a move towards consumer-narcissism and the high costs of having a child including massive over-taxation and regulatory fees imposed by insatiable governments [more than 30% of a family's disposable income is needed for each child], all play a role.

Maybe Islam is not destined to rule the world. If you don't have a culture which venerates women and children, or which is at odds with morality, reality and common-sense, the future cannot be yours.  

 


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