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January 2005
A great article on why Iraq will be pacified written by someone who has actually been there and worked there, and who understands the environment in Iraq. Unlike the media and armchair experts, the people on the ground with knowledge are certain that the democratic experience in Iraq will prevail and win over the dark forces of Fascist-Islamo theocracy. The media, which is entirely negative about any US policy, should lay off or perhaps start comparing the efforts of the UNO, Canada and the EU with the US in the fight on terror. It would not be a pretty balance sheet for the internationalists or the ‘compassionate’ Canadians and Europeans who also give 3-7 x less per capita to charity than the Americans. You would think that free-riding do-gooder’s would at least have the compunction to support their rhetoric [an example is the Canadian Tsunamis relief efforts which equate into a contribution of $6.50 per taxpaying Canadian].
The 'Boom Factor' Drowns Out Progress in Iraq
By ROBERT D. BLACKWILL
Wall Street Journal January 5, 2005; Page A10
The continuing violence in Iraq, including the recent suicide attack in the mess hall at Mosul, has produced a new wave of gloom regarding the efficacy of U.S. policy toward Iraq and the future of that country. The naysayers are wrong: 2005 will be a good year in Iraq for President Bush. By asserting this I recognize that in most of Washington I am a white rhino on the Savanna, as I reject the views, among others, of the professional pessimists within parts of the U.S. intelligence community.
Having spent several months in Iraq in the past year, I can attest to its complexity. Most analytically important, what are the metrics by which one assesses the course and pace of Iraq's critical trend lines? How do we decide how we are doing? The news programs, with their repetitive pictures of violence and mayhem, deeply mislead in this regard. To paraphrase James Joyce and contrary to the television news readers' mantra (boom, I said boom, I will boom), surely the number of suicide bombings or coalition and Iraqi casualties per week is not the most effective means to gauge progress or failure. How many troops did the U.S. lose in the Battle of the Bulge in 1944-45 or in the Wilderness Campaign in 1864? We are, after all, at war. The enemy is desperate to derail the movement toward a free, stable and peaceful Iraq. The more Iraq makes important steps toward democracy, the more we should expect the bombers to escalate their deadly attacks.
So if the boom factor is not an accurate way to understand the direction of developments, what metrics should we use instead? Here are mine, which indicate fundamental advances for Iraq and for the administration in 2005.
- President Bush will not waver. The U.S. will finish the mission in Iraq. The November election here settled any doubts on that score.
- Even if every Sunni Arab of any age joins the fight (which will not happen), the insurgency cannot get larger than about 20% of Iraq's population. The other 80% (Shiites and Kurds) are determined to fight "room to room," as Prime Minister Ayad Allawi puts it, to prevent a Baathist revival. So this will not become a popular national revolt like the Philippines 100 years ago, and most Iraqis will not stay on the fence until the outcome is decided as the South Vietnamese did four decades past. If you doubt this, remember that the insurgents have no positive agenda, the hundreds of thousands of Shiites in mass graves, and the Kurdish victims who were attacked with poison gas by Saddam's regime.
- The Iraqi government is steadily increasing the amount of territory it controls. When Prime Minister Allawi and his colleagues acquired sovereignty at the end of last June, large parts of the Shiite south including its large religious centers -- Najaf and Karbala -- were controlled by Moqtada al Sadr and his Mahdi militia. Today, Shiite Iraq is quiet, government police walk the streets of its cities and towns, and the insurgency is dominantly centered on the three Sunni provinces and neighborhoods of Baghdad. And there, too, with the offensive against Samara and Fallujah and parts of North Babil, inroads are being made against the terrorists. Today, most Iraqis are leading more or less normal lives. That number will expand in 2005.
- The Jan. 30 elections will take place and there will be an impressive turnout in most of Iraq, urged on by Shiite Grand Ayatollah Sistani and Kurdish leaders Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani. Although there likely will be limited Sunni participation, the vote overall will be above the threshold for legitimacy and take Iraqis substantially further toward democracy. Sunnis will get important positions in the new government. The authenticity conferred on the government through this election process and the writing of a permanent constitution will be another crucial blow against the Baathists and Zarqawi. As we see in Afghanistan and Ukraine, political freedom of choice is contagious.
- Prime Minister Allawi has a political-economic-military Sunni strategy. This is to separate the hard-core murderers from the Sunni population at large. The Iraqi government already has had some success in Samara and Tel Afar and there will be more to come. Mr. Allawi's message is simple: Join us in building the new Iraq and accept its benefits or, if you support the insurgency, get ready to die.
- The Iraqi Army is beginning to fight. Ten battalions of the Iraqi army are now combat-tested, and the number grows every month. They are not the 101st Airborne but Iraqi willingness to fight will steadily expand after the election when the new government takes office. This metric will continue to improve slowly but inexorably.
- The overall Iraqi economy is recovering rapidly from its condition just after the war, fueled in large part by U.S. and international reconstruction aid. No longer waiting for Godot, $3.9 billion of U.S. reconstruction assistance has now been disbursed inside Iraq with 1,200 projects underway employing 150,000 Iraqis. This effort is accelerating. Shovels are finally hitting the ground.
- International help for Iraq is on the upswing. The Paris Club's decision to dramatically reduce the Iraqi debt and NATO's growing training mission in Iraq are examples. Most of the world's key democracies are determined to work together to make Iraq a success, a supreme example of enlightened self-interest. We should stop talking about more non-U.S. coalition troops on the ground since few Iraqi politicians want to explain to the voters why more foreign troops are arriving in the country. Iraqis want to be protected only by Iraqis as soon as that is feasible. We should applaud that sentiment.
Does all this mean Iraq is about to become a cakewalk? Not a chance. The Iraqis and the coalition face a determined foe. There will be terrorist outrages in the weeks ahead and numerous other tactical setbacks. More courageous Americans in Iraq will make the ultimate sacrifice while nobly defending the U.S. and spreading freedom. But time and the most fundamental trends inside and outside Iraq are on President Bush's side. The killers hold a losing hand, aces and eights. So as 2005 begins, prepare for the strategic implications of democratic success in Iraq. It is on its way.
Mr. Blackwill was President Bush's deputy national security adviser for strategic planning and also served as presidential envoy to Iraq. He is now president of Barbour Griffith & Rogers International, a lobbying firm.
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